This paper employs unique tax administrative data and operational audit information from a sample of approximately 7,500 self-employed U.S. taxpayers to investigate the effects of operational tax audits on future reporting behavior. Our estimates indic...
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation fro...
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks a?ect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that i...
We examine the link between the quality of fiscal governance and access to market-based external finance. Stronger fiscal governance is associated with improvements in several indicators of market access, including a higher likelihood of issuing sovere...
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price level is sometimes determined by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. The models where this claim has been established assume that ...
The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interc...
Focus Since the mid-1980s, the nature of recessions has changed from inflation-induced to financial cycle-induced recessions. Against this backdrop, this paper formally assesses the forecasting performance of financial cycles to predict recessions in ...